Widespread torrential rains cause severe flooding across South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe
In January 2026, Southern Africa experienced widespread flooding following prolonged and intense rainfall associated with La Niña conditions and a strong regional weather system. Over a two-week period, major rivers, including the Limpopo and Zambezi, breached their banks, causing extensive inundation across parts of South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe. Reports indicate more than 200 fatalities and significant displacement of communities (ReliefWeb, 2026a; ABC News, 2026a).
Infrastructure damage has been severe, with roads, bridges, and agricultural land affected, and economic losses estimated in the hundreds of millions of US dollars (ABC News, 2026b). The event highlights the influence of large-scale climate drivers on regional hydrology and the challenges posed by saturated soils and limited drainage capacity. Understanding these factors is essential for assessing flood risk and planning mitigation strategies.
This event represents one of the most extensive multi‑country river flood episodes in Southern Africa in recent years, with highly correlated impacts across major transboundary basins and significant implications for uninsured and sovereign risk.
Atmospheric drivers and river basin dynamics
The January 2026 floods in Southern Africa were driven by persistent heavy rainfall associated with La Niña conditions which typically enhance convection and moisture transport over the region during the austral summer (ReliefWeb, 2026b).
La Niña conditions are linked to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation that favour increased moisture advection from the southwest Indian Ocean into southern and southeastern Africa, increasing the likelihood of prolonged rainfall events rather than short-lived convective storms (NOAA, 2025).
During early to mid-January 2026 these background climate conditions were reinforced by a strong regional low-pressure system combined with warm sea surface temperatures in the southwest Indian Ocean. This combination helped sustain deep convection and repeated rainfall episodes across Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe.
The persistence of this synoptic setup limited opportunities for catchments to drain between rainfall events allowing soil moisture levels to progressively increase and runoff efficiency to rise as the event evolved (UNISDR, 2015).
Rainfall intensified significantly between 12 and 15 January, with cumulative totals exceeding 200–300mm over a 7–10 day period in several provinces (News24, 2026, Figure 1). Such multi-day rainfall totals are particularly effective at generating river flooding as infiltration capacity declines rapidly once soils become saturated.
As a result, a large proportion of subsequent rainfall was converted directly into surface runoff, feeding into major river systems including the Limpopo, Crocodile, Sabie, Letaba, and Zambezi rivers (ReliefWeb, 2026b). These rivers drain large transboundary catchments, making them especially sensitive to sustained and spatially extensive rainfall events.
The Limpopo River Basin, spanning South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique (Figure 2), was particularly affected. Sustained rainfall across multiple upstream sub-basins led to synchronous rises in river levels, increasing downstream flood peaks once flows converged in the lower basin. Low-lying floodplains and limited channel capacity in downstream Mozambique amplified inundation once river levels exceeded channel capacity resulting in extensive overbank flooding.
Similarly, flooding within the Zambezi River Basin (Figure 2) contributed to severe impacts in Mozambique’s Zambezia and Sofala provinces. Here, elevated upstream flows coincided with locally intense rainfall, increasing flood depths and prolonging inundation across floodplain and deltaic areas. Flat topography, slow drainage, and high antecedent soil moisture from earlier seasonal rains further exacerbated flood extent and delayed recession.
Overall, as illustrated by the spatial extent of the highlighted river basins (Figure 2), the combination of La Niña-enhanced rainfall, persistent synoptic-scale forcing, saturated catchments, and large transboundary river systems created conditions highly conducive to widespread and severe river flooding across Southern Africa in January 2026.
Impacts and damages
The January 2026 floods resulted in more than 200 fatalities across Southern Africa, making this one of the deadliest multi-country flood events in the region in recent years (Newsday, 2026; ReliefWeb, 2026c).
In South Africa, at least 30 deaths were reported, primarily in Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces, where river overflow, road collapses, and damage to housing left several communities isolated (eNCA, 2026; SABC News, 2026a). Kruger National Park was also severely affected, with more than 600 tourists and staff evacuated after floodwaters damaged access roads and facilities (Newsday, 2026).
Mozambique has experienced the most extensive humanitarian impacts. Southern and central provinces, including Gaza, Maputo, Inhambane, and Sofala, were severely affected, with widespread displacement following river overflow and flash flooding in low-lying districts (ReliefWeb, 2026c).
As of mid-January, more than 600,000 people had been affected nationwide, over 50,000 of whom were sheltering in temporary accommodation, with children representing a large proportion of those impacted (Club of Mozambique, 2026; ReliefWeb, 2026d).
In Zimbabwe, flooding across Masvingo, Manicaland, Midlands, and Mashonaland East provinces resulted in at least 70 fatalities, alongside widespread damage to homes, schools, roads, and bridges (ReliefWeb, 2026c).
Across the region, damage to housing and critical infrastructure has been extensive. In Mozambique, over 4,000 homes were destroyed and approximately 78,000 were damaged, significantly increasing humanitarian needs (UNFPA Mozambique, 2026).
In South Africa, more than 1,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in Limpopo alone, with authorities estimating that over ZAR 4 billion (USD ~240 million) will be required for infrastructure repairs, including roads, bridges, and public facilities (Newsday, 2026; ABC News, 2026; Sowetan, 2026).
Mpumalanga province reported damage to more than 1,500 homes, with repair costs estimated at over ZAR 2 billion (eNCA, 2026; SABC News, 2026b). In Zimbabwe, more than 1,000 homes were destroyed, with major disruption to transport and education infrastructure (Newsday, 2026).
From a risk and insurance perspective, early indications suggest that total economic losses from the January 2026 floods are likely to reach several hundred million US dollars across the three countries, driven by damage to residential property, agriculture, transport networks, and public assets (ABC News, 2026; ReliefWeb, 2026c).
However, the majority of these losses are expected to be uninsured, reflecting low insurance penetration across much of Southern Africa, particularly in Mozambique and rural parts of Zimbabwe (Cenfri, 2020). Even in South Africa, where insurance uptake is higher, flood insurance coverage remains uneven, with informal settlements and rural communities especially exposed to financial loss following extreme events (Lefutso et al., 2025).
Agricultural impacts are likely to further amplify economic losses. Extensive flooding of cropland has been reported along major river corridors, with maize and other staple crops inundated during critical growing periods (Food For Mzansi, 2026).
Damage to rural roads and bridges has disrupted supply chains and market access, while soil erosion and waterlogging may slow recovery and reduce yields in subsequent seasons. These impacts raise concerns around food security, household income, and inflationary pressures, particularly if further rainfall occurs later in the season.
Flood Foresight in Mozambique
Flood Foresight® is JBA’s global flood forecasting tool, designed to provide early awareness of where river flooding may develop. It brings together weather forecasts and river modelling to highlight locations where rivers are likely to rise to levels associated with flooding, several days before impacts occur. This supports early preparedness and helps users understand how flood risk may evolve during major events.
Mozambique provides a useful case study for examining how Flood Foresight can support awareness of flood risk during a large regional event. During the January 2026 Southern Africa floods, Flood Foresight indicated a growing severity of river flooding across the river network several days ahead of the peak flooding period. This signal strengthened during mid to late January, when prolonged and widespread rainfall affected the central and southern parts of the country.
Forecast outputs show good agreement with event day conditions, with the overall increase in flood severity consistently captured ahead of the peak. Performance was strongest during the most severe flood episodes, when river response was widespread across catchments, reflecting the higher predictability of large-scale rainfall systems. These results demonstrate how Flood Foresight can provide clear, advanced indications of escalating river flood severity ahead of major impacts.
Figure 5 illustrates how flood severity across Mozambique evolved in forecasts leading up to the flood peak on 20 January 2026. Event day conditions show widespread severe flooding across central catchments, characterised by high return period river flows.
Forecasts issued two days in advance show strong spatial consistency with the event day pattern, with comparable flood severities indicated across much of the affected river network. This includes the main areas experiencing the most severe flooding during the peak of the event, suggesting a high level of confidence in the location and relative severity of impacts at short lead times.
At a five-day lead time, the forecast continues to show a broad area of severe flooding, although some localised differences in the highest return period categories are evident. This reflects greater uncertainty further in advance of the event, particularly at finer spatial scales, while the overall extent of flooding remains well represented.
On the whole, the comparison demonstrates that Flood Foresight provided early indication of both the location and relative severity of flooding in advance of peak impacts, with forecast confidence increasing as the event approached.
Notable historical events
The January 2026 Southern Africa floods form part of a recurring pattern of high-impact flood events affecting major transboundary river basins in the region. The Limpopo and Zambezi basins have experienced several severe flood episodes over recent decades, often linked to La Niña conditions or land-falling tropical systems in the southwest Indian Ocean.
Table 1 places the 2026 event in the context of notable historical floods, highlighting the scale of human impacts and economic losses. The recurrence of major flood losses in the same river basins underlines the importance of basin-scale risk assessment, cross-border forecasting, and long-term resilience planning.
Table 1: Selected historical flood events in Southern Africa.
Overall, the January 2026 Southern Africa floods were less extreme in terms of peak losses than events such as Cyclone Idai in 2019 or the February 2000 floods, but were more geographically extensive, with simultaneous impacts across multiple transboundary river basins.
The event illustrates how prolonged La Niña‑enhanced rainfall can produce widespread, highly correlated river flooding, reinforcing the importance of basin‑scale risk assessment and regional preparedness rather than event‑by‑event comparison alone.
Industry implications
The January 2026 floods highlight the ongoing challenge of managing flood risk across large, transboundary river basins in Southern Africa, where exposure is high and the financial capacity to absorb losses is often limited.
As demonstrated by the widespread impacts across Mozambique, South Africa, and Zimbabwe, prolonged rainfall events can generate correlated flood losses over large geographic areas, placing strain on national disaster response systems and public finances.
From a risk financing perspective, the event reinforces the importance of probabilistic flood risk assessment in understanding potential loss drivers beyond individual historical events. Large river systems such as the Limpopo and Zambezi are capable of producing severe and spatially extensive flooding under sustained rainfall, meaning that reliance on historical loss experience alone may underestimate the scale and frequency of potential impacts.
Flood hazard and loss models play a key role in quantifying exposure, estimating losses across a range of return periods, and supporting stress testing for insurers, reinsurers, and public-sector stakeholders.
These modelling approaches are also central to sovereign and parametric disaster risk financing mechanisms, where modelled river flow or flood severity thresholds are used to trigger rapid financial support following extreme events. Programmes supported by the African Risk Capacity (ARC, 2026) illustrate how probabilistic river flood modelling can underpin early action, contingency planning, and faster access to funds in the aftermath of major floods.
By linking forecast or observed flood severity to predefined response measures, such mechanisms aim to reduce humanitarian impacts and improve the timeliness of disaster response, particularly in countries with limited fiscal buffers.
In this context, forecast-based tools such as Flood Foresight® provide an important complementary capability. During the January 2026 event, Flood Foresight provided advance indications of escalating river flood severity across central and southern Mozambique several days ahead of peak impacts.
When used alongside flood models and risk financing frameworks, early warning information can support earlier mobilisation of resources, improved situational awareness, and more effective coordination between governments, humanitarian agencies, and financial partners.
Overall, the January 2026 floods demonstrate the growing need for integrated flood risk management approaches that combine early warning, probabilistic modelling, and financial risk transfer. As climate variability and exposure continue to increase across Southern Africa, strengthening these links will be critical to reducing future losses and improving resilience to large-scale river flooding.
