JBA AUSTRALIA INLAND FLOOD MODEL
Flood coverage was once excluded from Australian standard home insurance due to high risks, but major floods, like the 2011 Brisbane floods, increased demand for it to be made available. In 2012, the Australian government launched a review leading to initiatives that made flood insurance more accessible. Insurers began offering flood coverage with improved risk assessments based on location and climate data. However challenges remain, especially in high-risk areas. The impacts of climate change on flood risk highlights the need for proactive measures to mitigate risks and insurers are reassessing their coverage.
JBA’s Oasis-enabled Inland Flood Model for Australia is the highest resolution inland flood model in the market. The model features detailed 5m flood data coverage in key urban areas across Australia, integrating both physical and statistical approaches to assess surface water (pluvial) and river (fluvial) flooding from tropical and non-tropical storm events.
Thoroughly validated using PERILS data and industry collaborations, this model addresses strata lines of business alongside residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. It also incorporates various future scenarios of river and surface water flood hazard changes based on different climate projections.
Built on Oasis-enabled technology, JBA’s model leverages cutting-edge methodologies, allowing users to dynamically create models using event sets, hazards, and vulnerabilities in real-time. This flexibility eliminates embedded assumptions, giving users greater control and choice. JBA’s expert view of risk is underpinned by default data, methods, and analysis settings.
What the model offers
Comprehensive coverage
The Australia Inland Flood Model delivers extensive and inclusive assessments of inland flood risks, encompassing both tropical cyclone (TC) and non-tropical cyclone (Non-TC) events across mainland Australia.
High resolution
Leveraging JBA’s cutting-edge 5m flood maps, our model is the highest resolution available today. The model utilizes fully hydrodynamically modelled flood maps, ensuring the most realistic representation of flood water dynamics across diverse terrains. This advanced analysis incorporates the latest 2D hydraulic modelling, terrain data, channel capacity and flood defence data. Such detailed, building-level insights enhance risk assessment, competitive pricing, and effective portfolio management by accurately depicting flow paths around properties. Over 50% of Australian insurers rely on these maps for precise risk selection and pricing. By integrating these maps, the Australia Inland Flood Model delivers a consistent risk perspective throughout the entire risk transfer chain—encompassing location-level underwriting, risk assessment, portfolio pricing, and capital modelling.
Open and transparent
Each component of our model undergoes rigorous validation, with detailed insights documented in our technical resources. The model defaults to JBA’s expert view of risk while also permitting users to adjust or replace components for customized risk assessments. Built on the OASIS framework, our model is accessible through Verisk’s Model Exchange Platform (MEP) or IF ELEMENTS upon request.
Model sensitivity and uncertainty
Scientific data and methods are foundational to our products, but they are inherently uncertain. Understanding how uncertainty propagates through the model is crucial to allow clients to make informed decisions. By quantifying uncertainty in loss results, clients can assess their risk and choose a more, or less conservative approach. To support this, we’ve improved uncertainty quantification in our Australia Model. Clients can now choose a spatially varying distribution method, alongside the existing uniform method. This new approach captures input variability with dynamic probability distributions for each location, enabling location-dependent perturbations. Additionally, it allows clients to pinpoint the sources of uncertainty. We offer Global Sensitivity Analysis to help clients identify the factors most influencing their losses, guiding them toward better data utilization.
Climate change adaptation
The Australia Inland Flood Model offers forward-looking insights into potential changes in flood risk and associated losses by 2050 and 2080, based on climate scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. This capability empowers users to evaluate climate change impacts on flood risk for better portfolio planning, capital management, and regulatory compliance. Additionally, we provide tailored development options for specific climate scenarios and adjustments to meet regulatory specifications.
Access
The model can be assessed in house, via Verisk’s MEP as standard or IF ELEMENTS on request. JBA also offer a bespoke portfolio analysis service.