India Crop Model

Following the successful release of our first India Crop Model, JBA has developed an updated model for 2019. As before the model features a 10,000-year probabilistic event set to assess insurance losses in India. The 2019 India Crop Model now extends to cover both the PMFBY,  (the Indian Prime Minister's crop insurance scheme) and the WBCIS (Weather Based Crop Insurance Schemes) insurance schemes, 37 major insured crops and 654 districts. As well as the 'standard' operating model, an ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) model has been developed to allow users to assess potential crop losses in El Nino (ENSO+) years. The model helps facilitate long-term risk management and re/insurance pricing.

With approximately 40 million farmers in India covered under the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana scheme (PMFBY) and the WBCIS scheme, the India Crop industry has become a major focus for international re/insurers.

The model captures multiple extreme weather perils contributing to seasonal crop failure, including drought, flood, heat stress, and tropical cyclone damage, to produce annual expected losses for Indian states and districts.

This enables better re/insurance pricing and rate analysis, as well as an understanding of the Probable Maximum Loss from low frequency, high severity seasons, and the ability to manage portfolio structures long-term.

Developed with collaboration from re/insurance industry partners and covering both growing seasons in India (kharif and rabi), the JBA model uses unique physical crop modelling techniques to simulate historic crop yields using current farming practice.

Our flood modelling is Oasis-enabled - it fits seamlessly within the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework and subsequently supports all standard Oasis interfaces – OED, results file formats, Oasis API, and uses the Oasis financial/risk metrics to generate ground up location level losses.

The India Crop Model is available via JBA consultancy and portfolio analysis services, or our catastrophe modelling user interface.

For more information about the model, get in touch via the form below, read our Executive Briefing or read our blog.

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