Record-breaking rainfall submerges UAE and Oman
The heaviest rainfall in 75 years brought the United Arab Emirates to a halt as flooding caused severe disruption at Dubai International Airport, one of the world’s busiest hubs for international air traffic. Flooding also affected Oman, where 19 people lost their lives (Forbes, 2024). Dubai recorded 142mm of rain in 24 hours, equivalent to what the desert city would expect in a year and a half, leaving homes, malls and highways flooded. Five people are known to have died in the UAE (Guardian, 2024) and the flooding claimed the lives of at least eight people in southeastern Iran (Iran International, 2024). The President of the UAE, Sheikh Mohammed bin Nahyan, directed the authorities to assess the country’s infrastructure and provide support to flood-impacted people (Al Arabiya, 2024). According to analysts from S&P Global Ratings, motor and property damage claims will account for most of the losses for local insurers (Reinsurance News, 2024).
Event Overview
The floods in the Arabian region during mid-April 2024 were a result of heavy rains across Oman, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Iran (ABC News, 2024).
Figure 1: Satellite-observed rainfall for the Arabian Peninsula and southeast Iran between 13 and 20 April 2024. Rainfall data source: NASA GPM 3-hour rainfall accumulation (2024). Animation produced by JBA Risk Management (2024).
14 April
Heavy rains began to hit Oman as 90mm and 64mm rainfall was recorded in Al Mudhaibi with 64mm being recorded at Marmul Airport. Rescue teams evacuated 1,200 people from a school in Al Mudhaibi (FloodList, 2024).
15 April
Heavy rains and thunderstorms triggered widespread flooding in Bahrain, including the second highest two-day rainfall recorded in Bahraini history (Gulf Daily News, 2024).
16 April
In the UAE, torrential rains led to major highway floods and disruption, especially in Dubai. Schools were closed and government employees worked remotely. High winds also affected flights at Dubai International Airport., causing more than 1,000 flight cancellations and severely disrupting operations. Paul Griffiths, Dubai Airport’s CEO said: “In living memory, I don’t think anyone has ever seen conditions like it” (Financial Times, 2024). Due to severe weather, households in Abu Dhabi and Dubai experienced interruptions in water and power supplies (Khaleej Times, 2024).
Oman reported severe flooding, resulting in at least 19 deaths, including nine school children and their driver. The floods washed away vehicles and caused extensive property damage. Rescue operations were extensive, with over 1,600 people rescued across Oman by the Royal Oman Police (Al Jazeera, 2024).
17 April
Yemen also experienced heavy rain leading to flash flooding in the Hadhramaut Governorate, with one reported death, widespread property damage and potential risk of landslides (Albawaba News, 2024).
18 April
Authorities and leaders across the affected regions, as well as emergency services, were actively engaged in assessing damages and coordinating relief efforts. There were also community health concerns due to contaminated stagnant water in areas like Sharjah, UAE.
Figure 2: View towards Al Mustaqbal Street from Index Tower, Dubai on 17 April 2024 and JBA’s 200-year surface water flood map for the area. Photo: ©Gary Marshall; Base map: © Mapbox © OpenStreetMap Improve this map.
Why was there a deluge in the desert
Shortly after the flooding in the UAE and Oman made international news, speculation arose regarding the potential role of cloud seeding in influencing the heavy rainfall. Cloud seeding is a method used to enhance precipitation by dispersing substances into clouds that promote the formation and release of rain or snow (NCM, 2024). This technique is often employed in drought-prone areas such as the UAE to increase the water supply and manage water resources more effectively.
The UAE has been using cloud seeding since the 1990s and it is managed by the UAE's National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) through its UAE Rain Enhancement Programme (UAEREP). Despite the region's active engagement in cloud seeding, Esraa Alnaqbi, a senior forecaster at NCM, has attributed the exceptional rainfall to a low-pressure weather system, significantly amplified by climate change factors.
The deep atmospheric low that moved across the Arabian Peninsula pulled in unusually high amounts of moisture from the Persian Gulf. The intense moisture influx, coupled with the low-pressure system, created optimal conditions for sustained, heavy rainfall over areas typically characterised by arid climate conditions. The UAE, including Dubai, experienced its heaviest rainfall since records began, with some areas recording up to 250mm of rain in less than 24 hours. In Oman, the storm system contributed to significant precipitation that led to flash flooding. The enhanced rainfall was particularly severe due to the storm's slow movement, which allowed prolonged periods of downpour over the same areas, overwhelming natural and man-made drainage systems.
Figure 3: Rainfall accumulation and estimated return periods from the UAE and Oman flood event. The map shows the 7-day accumulated rainfall totals from 12 to 19 April 2024 (NASA GPM, 2024). The orange circles show rainfall gauges in UAE and Oman (UAE gauge data: NCM, 2024; Oman gauge data: Oman’s National Committee for Emergency Management, 2024 and World Meteorological Organization, 2024). The size of the circle represents the event rainfall return period for each location as calculated using extreme value analysis from 43-year NOAA-CPC (2024) rainfall timeseries.
Meteorologists have linked these extreme weather events to broader climatic changes, noting that a warming atmosphere can hold more moisture, thereby increasing the likelihood and severity of such events. A recent study suggests that increased sea and air temperatures in this area could boost annual rainfall in the UAE by up to 30% by the end of the century (Rao et al., 2024). This phenomenon is part of a larger pattern observed globally, where climate change is making extreme weather events more frequent and intense.
Historic flooding in the Arabian Peninsula
The Arabian Peninsula is generally characterized by an arid climate and infrequent rainfall, yet it can experience intense and sudden downpours that lead to significant flooding. The flood risk in the UAE and Oman stems primarily from their geographic and climatic conditions. In the UAE, rapid urbanization has led to increased surface runoff during rare but intense rainfall events, overwhelming the drainage systems and causing urban flooding. The risk is compounded by low-lying coastal areas vulnerable to storm surges and rising sea levels. In contrast, Oman's varied landscape, including mountains and plains, faces flash flooding risks during intense rains, especially with seasonal cyclones from the Persian Gulf that bring heavy rains and strong winds.
The table below describes the meteorological observations and impacts from recent flood events that have affected the region.
JBA conducted an Extreme Value Analysis on rainfall data in order to estimate the return period of the event. We fit a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) curve to a 43-year daily rainfall climate data timeseries from NOAA (2024) to produce rainfall exceedance probability curves. The curves are shown by the solid orange lines in Figure 4, with the 95th percentiles given by the dashed lines and observed values by the blue lines. The observed daily rainfall of 168mm at the beach resort area of Jumeirah in Dubai on 16 April (Figure 4a; NCM, 2024) suggests a 125-year rainfall event impacted the city. In the east of the UAE in Kalba, 240mm of rainfall (NCM,2024) suggests a 365-year event in this area (Figure 4b). The 24-hour accumulated rainfall was lower in Oman, with 90mm of rainfall observed in Al Mudhaibi suggesting an 85-year rainfall event (Figure 4c).
Figure 4: Estimated extreme rainfall return periods for three sites across UAE and Oman. (a-b) Rainfall return period analysis for Jumeirah (168mm) and Kalba (240mm), UAE, based on daily rainfall summaries from NOAA (2024) and observed rainfall for 16 April from NCM (2024). (c) Rainfall return period analysis for Al Mudhaibi, Oman, of 90mm on 15 April (Oman’s National Committee for Emergency Management, 2024).
The return period analysis suggests that such severe rainfall is not a common occurrence in these regions. As this area has an arid climate and the infrastructure is not designed for heavy rainfall, such rare events can cause significant disruption and damage, as seen in the recent floods. Extreme rainfall events in the Arabian Peninsula are becoming more significant and common due to climate change, potentially happening more often than the historical data suggest. As the climate continues to change, the region may need to prepare for more such events, which were once considered extremely unlikely.
This report is accompanied by a flood footprint for the event - detailing extents and depths of the flooding in areas affected. Download it via our Client Portal or request a copy by emailing eventresponse@jbarisk.com.
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