New UK Climate
Change Flood Model

JBA Risk Management® have released our new UK Climate Change Flood Model, the first of its type available for the UK, which projects that Annual Average Loss for residential properties in the UK could rise by 25-30% over the next 20 years as a result of climate change.

The model, which draws on the latest scientific understanding of climate change, will help (re)insurers understand the impact of climate change across the country. It provides quantitative results that supports projections from research and government data that the number of UK flood events causing financial loss will rise between now and 2040.

For this model, Government climate change factors were used and statistical adjustments were made to JBA's large set of possible UK river, surface water and coastal flood events. The data generated provides an insight into potential changes to flood risk by 2040. The estimated rise in annual average loss of 25-30% is based on a residential property portfolio without adjustment for limits, deductibles or policies with flood exclusions. (Estimates of total damage exposure are available from the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017).

JBA’s UK Climate Change Flood Model is a ground-breaking catastrophe model specifically designed to provide an indication of possible future changes to flood risk across the country. We have taken highly-detailed and complex scientific data and created a functional, forward-looking tool that insurers can use in conjunction with our UK Flood Model for decision-making and portfolio management.
Jane Toothill, Director of JBA
The impact of climate change on flood severity and frequency presents increased uncertainty for insurers and reinsurers. Only the largest firms have the ability to develop in-house views on future flood risk. We are pleased to see the release of this model, enabling both large and smaller companies to quantify the potential impact on their exposure for the first time.
Gary McInally, Chief Actuary at Flood Re

The JBA UK Climate Change Flood model is currently available on JBA’s JCalf® platform and Simplitium’s ModEx. For more information, read our executive briefingget in touch or check out our latest blog. We also joined Simplitium for a webinar to explore the impact of climate change for insurers and reinsurers- watch it today!

Let's Talk. Make an Enquiry

To contact JBA Risk Management, please complete the form below and press the send button.


We'll keep you up to date

Don't miss out on receiving the most relevant details about our products and services, company updates, blogs and event response updates. If you are happy to receive this information by e-mail, please confirm your agreement by ticking the boxes below.


We take your privacy seriously. We will securely store the data that you share. We will not share your data with any third party. If you would like to unsubscribe at any time please contact us at hello@jbarisk.com with the subject line Opt-out or call JBA Risk Management Marketing on 01756 799919. All updates will also give you the option to unsubscribe.

Read our complete privacy policy here.

News &
Insights

News Australia Pricing Data

JBA's Australia Pricing Data offers risk-reflective assessment of potential flood damage for more than 14 million properties for more effective risk selection and competitive pricing.

Learn more
News JBA Partners with Oasis LMF on The Wave

JBA has partnered with Oasis LMF and other risk modelling specialists to provide greater access to market-leading catastrophe modelling solutions.

Continue reading
News Climate Change Exercise in General Insurance Stress Test (GIST) from the PRA

For the first time the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) has included a climate change component in the GIST stress test. Learn how JBA can offer help in addressing this climate change excercise.

Continue reading
News JBA and FloodFlash partner to launch first parametric flood policy

We've partnered with FloodFlash to provide a breakthrough in event-based flood insurance, applying a parametric approach at property level for the first time. The product is an industry first and will provide bespoke insurance for policyholders in frequently flooded areas who have traditionally struggled to obtain cover.

Continue reading