Catastrophe Modelling
For the future

Climate change - the hot topic of the moment (if you'll excuse the pun!). But how will it really affect your risk? We have developed a ground-breaking UK Climate Change Flood Model to help answer that very question.

Why does climate change matter?

In the UK, we've already experienced changes to our climate, with warming temperatures and increases in the frequency and severity of heavy rainfall events over the last 150 years. Climate scientists expect this to continue in the future, and the impacts on flooding could be felt as early as the 2020s.

Government research suggests that rising sea levels and increases in the frequency of events, like winter storms, mean we face significant changes in future flood risk. In fact, research indicates that by 2040 the number of properties exposed to frequent flooding could increase by 20% (Sayers et al., 2015).

A new way to assess future flood risk

To assess risk under a future climate scenario, we've statistically adjusted our UK Flood Event Set using government-approved climate change factors, which have been calculated using the latest climate projections for the UK. This, combined with our 5m UK flood maps and 2018 UK Flood Model exposure data, means we're able to provide an indication of coastal, surface water and river flood risk across the country by 2040.

By comparing results from our UK Climate Change Flood Model to those from our 2018 UK Flood Model, we can offer an insight into the potential future change in financial loss and where in the UK your risk to flood may change. In fact, our results suggest an increase of between 25-30% in Average Annual Loss (AAL) for residential properties across the UK.

Interestingly, we don't see an increase in flood risk everywhere for all flood types (pictured, showing changes in river flood for 200-year events and 1000-year events in the UK). For example, in the South East, losses from river flood are projected to decrease compared to present-day.

Catastrophe Model accessibility

Results from the model can be used for longer-term portfolio management and strategic decision making. Our model is available on Oasis, Nasdaq Risk Modelling and JBA's in-house platform, JCalf®. If you're interested, please get in touch to talk to one of our catastrophe risk specialists or check out our press release and executive briefing.

We also held a webinar to explore the impact of climate change for insurers and reinsurers- watch it today!

References
Sayers, P.B., Horritt, M, M., Penning-Rowsell, E. and McKenzie, A. (2015). Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017: Projections of future flood risk in the UK. Committee on Climate Change, London, 125 pp.

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