UK Flood and UK Climate Change Flood Models

Our UK Flood Model offers a consistent view of risk across the entire risk transfer chain through incorporation of our market-leading 5m UK Flood Map. Portfolio analysis at building level takes advantage of these maps to offer competitive pricing and excellent differentiation between neighbouring properties.

The model offers a comprehensive view of flood risk by correlating river, surface water and coastal flood across the whole of the UK, as well a high event rate to capture attritional losses and a continuous rainfall simulation to account for antecedent conditions.

Realistic loss simulation is provided by the inclusion of extensive defence data and application of a sophisticated overtopping algorithm. Loss calculation is done at the lowest possible level: every location, event, flood type and coverage. Historic flood events are incorporated for validation and portfolio stress testing, including Storms Desmond, Eva and Frank 2015/2016 and June & July 2007.

UK Climate Change Flood Model

This model offers a unique opportunity to assess the future impact of climate change on portfolios and quantify potential impacts against present-day losses. Our pioneering model provides an indication of loss estimates by 2040 and can be used in conjunction with our UK Flood Model for proactive decision-making and portfolio management.

Aimed to provide a realistic view of risk, it reflects warming consistent with a 2°C increase in global temperatures by 2100, in line with the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goals set at COP21 in 2015. The model enables users to understand the magnitude of change in flood risk associated with a realistic climate change scenario and identify areas which may be more or less susceptible to flooding under a warmer climate. Losses from the climate change model will aid proactive management of portfolios most susceptible to climate change-induced flood risk, allowing for the future planning of portfolio diversification to less susceptible areas.

The UK Climate Change Flood Model is complemented by JBA's wider range of Climate Change Analytics - get in touch for more information.

Model access

The models be accessed via portfolio analysis services provided by JBA, or our catastrophe modelling platform, JCalf®. The models can also be accessed via ELEMENTS, Oasis and Nasdaq Risk Modelling for Catastrophes.

For more information on both our UK Flood Models, see our executive briefing. Alternatively, get in touch via the form below.

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Flood Services

Catastrophe Models

Our suite of high-resolution catastrophe models and event sets utilise the latest science to assess the potential severity and frequency of flood losses to global property portfolios.

Maps And Analytics

Our market-leading high-resolution global flood maps and analytics enable users to understand and manage their flood risk, using the latest research and innovation.


We work on a bespoke basis to offer unique solutions to your flood risk problems, from single site assessments and flood defence design to portfolio optimisation and tailored model builds, working with you to meet your needs.

Event Response

Our specialist event response team monitors global conditions to provide expert commentary, guidance and data for major flood events, allowing you to understand the impact on your business.