Our probabilistic models make it simple to quantify exposure.

Our models can be licensed to use in any modelling platform of choice (including in-house cat models), and single components may be licensed to use alongside others from elsewhere.

Whether you are looking for hazard maps, event sets, defence information, underlying hydrological analysis, built environment models and vulnerability functions or a combination of the above, our cutting edge technology and advanced statistical methods will get the job done. 

Our probabilistic models can be licensed as a complete model or as separate component parts to complement existing information. We can also carry out a property portfolio analysis on a consultancy basis, using our own catastrophe loss modelling platform, JCalf.

Take a look at some examples of our models below, and for more information about existing probabilistic models or new projects – get in touch.

Europe River Flood

River Flood

Our Europe probabilistic model enables the calculation of return period losses across Europe. The underlying flood maps of Austria, Belgium, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Switzerland are modelled at up to 10m resolution. An event set, a built environment model and vulnerability functions for 78 risk types complete the model which has five aggregation levels, from CRESTA level up to Europe-wide level. 

Thailand River Flood

River Flood

Our probabilistic flood model for Thailand was released in response to the need amongst re/insurers to better understand Thai flood risk following the floods of 2011. 

India Flood

River and surface water

As part of our Global Flood Map we have now modelled some 138,600 km of river in India. Our probabilistic flood model of India currently includes the 23 most exposed cities in the country, with surface water and river flood included depending on which peril is the greater threat to each city. 

Malaysia Flood

River and surface water

The Malaysia model is a full probabilistic multi-peril flood model allowing analysis of risks from river flood (nationwide with around 15,000km total river length modelled) and surface water (modelled for 10 cities). 

With an underlying hazard map resolution of 30m, the Malaysia flood model’s resolution and quality are cutting edge in this territory.  


UK Flood

River, surface water and sea surge flood

River, surface water and sea surge flood

Our high resolution, multi-peril flood model of the UK was originally released in 2015 to assist the insurance industry place household risks with the new reinsurance facility, Flood Re. 

Developed in collaboration with reinsurance broker Guy Carpenter, the JBA UK Flood Model is unique in that it includes river, rain and surface water (pluvial), and coastal flooding for the whole of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. The model is comprehensive as it includes residential, commercial and industrial buildings.  It is available to insurers and reinsurers who wish to fully quantify and understand their risk due to flooding in the UK.

The model includes extensive, high quality, and up-to-date river flood defence data from the relevant government bodies for all regions.  There are approaching four million vulnerability functions for properties which have been specified for each occupancy/structure type by peril, to capture the variation in flood damage due to water salinity and flood duration. The model also incorporates explicit representation of the time it would take to restore insured properties to their original value following flooding, to ensure that damage due to a second, closely following flood event is accurately represented. 

The JBA UK Flood Model supersedes JBA's Great Britain River Flood model, which was released in 2013. It may be licensed in JBA’s catastrophe modelling platform, JCalf®, or as components to run in alternative catastrophe models. Alternatively access to the model is available via bespoke portfolio analysis run by JBA.  

For more details click here.

Sri Lanka

JBA’s probabilistic flood model for river and surface water in Sri Lanka combines flood hazard maps and thousands of years of simulated events with a built environment model and bespoke vulnerability curves. Analysis in JCalf®, enables output of insured and ground up results.

The multi-return period hazard component of the model provides full national coverage of river and surface water flooding, and includes defence information. Over 10,500km of river network have been modelled and a stochastic event set of thousands of years has been built. The exposure element includes a built environment covering residential, commercial and industrial risks. Combined coverage for buildings and contents is provided at individual building resolution and 19 vulnerability functions covering various categories of structure and occupancy have been used. The model can be calibrated against any client loss experience.